2004 Elections!
My predictions, made almost two weeks ago were:
Liberals - 129 seats
Tories -104 seats
Bloc - 59 seats
NDP - 11 seats
Independents - 4 seats
Green - 1 seats
Paul Martin forms government (with NDP coalition to get him through budget time).
I've since changed my mind slightly and think that the Bloc will take fewer than I predicted with Liberals/NDP/Green making up the difference. Still holding strong on my thoughts that Conservatives won't get as many seats as Liberals, mainly because I feel their support is too regionally concentrated and they haven't made any headway in Quebec. That's why those polls are so misleading - they don't demonstrate regional focus. Anyone else want to hazard a guess between now and 10 pm?
Comments
Can't call them Tories anymore--not with the new PC/Alliance/Reform amalgamation. Good estimates on the votes, though, pretty close. Looks like the NDP did better than you thought. They'd have done even better under proportional representation (particularly here in BC), but hey, then the conservatives probably would have too . . .
Posted by: Matt | June 29, 2004 01:39 AM
I was relieved to see the Liberals hang on (my ballot got to me too late for me to send it back in time, so I would have felt much guiltier if they'd lost--cause, you know, I would have made the difference). My favourite moment, courtesy of CBC's web video: Gilles Duceppe speaking in front of a Bloc Quebecois sign that suddenly falls and swings back and forth behind him. It took him a while to notice. If he'd thought quickly, he could have said something like "I guess we should give our PR people more money (wink wink)". But he didn't.
Posted by: Tony | July 1, 2004 12:37 PM
The result was as good as we could have hoped, although the filthy xenophobic homophobic misogynistic Armageddon-thumping fascists got too much power. How come the NDP with 16% of the vote got only 19 seats, while the Bloc with 12% get 54? My chauvinism rears its ugly head.
Posted by: Unky Dunky | July 1, 2004 01:48 PM
It was as good as we could've hoped. The filthy xenophobic, homophobic, misogynistic pitiless Armageddon-thumping Fascists got way too much power. How come the New Democrats with 16% of the vote get 19 seats, while the Bloc with 12% get 2.5x as many? My chauvinism rears its ugly head!
Posted by: Gord | July 1, 2004 01:53 PM